Below is an outlook on the 2010 Dodgers. It shows current players under contract, players from last years team who will most likely be moving on, as well as new rookies that have just been added to the 40-Man roster. In this outlook as you may notice I am not predicting any Free Agent signings, instead, I am showing the team as if the season were to start today. I don't like to project Free Agents signings based on the fact I may become too emotionally attached to a player I want, only to see him sign with a division rival. To clarify the 40-man roster on the chart below, players in black font are locks to be on the opening day 25-man team barring some unforseen trade or injury, players in brown are who I would predict to be on the team if the season started today (granted many of the players may not be on the team due to free agent signings between now and opening day), and lastly, players in blue most likely will start the season in one of the Dodgers minor league affiliates.
Also on the left side of the chart there is last years players, combined with our 40-Man roster today. Anyone in red ink with a purple background is a free agent who can sign anywhere they please. Those players in yellow are players that are arbitration eligible, meaning they will most likely be on the team next spring, but their contracts have yet to be determined, in an attempt to come up with an accurate payroll I have guessed how much they will make next season but these numbers are far from finalized. Lastly, players with a green background are on the team and will either be on the Dodgers, or in our minor league system.
Before we exam this chart let's keep in mind that the Dodgers are very unlikely to be that aggressive in free agent signing this winter, for a host of reasons. First, many of our young talented players; Ethier, Kemp, Loney, Martin, Broxton, Sherrill, Billingsley and others are all arbitration eligible and will be demanding lots of money of the next few years. Second, the divorce between the McCourts, who each controlled 50 percent of the team, means it is highly unlikely that they will be willing to spend money until the smoke settles and terms of the divorce are worked out. Lastly, Manny's contract is stretched out over a few years, so even when he is gone in the 2011 season we will still have some money committed to him. With those facts in mind let us be happy that most of our roster is still intact and lets hope the McCourts don't dismantle the team like we saw with the Padres this past year.
Right now our payroll is right around $96,000,000 and I don't expect it to surpass $110,000,000. To give you an idea in 2008 we opened the season with a $119,000,000 payroll, in 2009 we opened the season with a $100,000,000 and ended the season with a payroll over 106,000,000. So with those numbers in mind I see us being between 100 and 120 million dollar payroll, but most likely closer to the first number.
Looking at this chart, the most glaring needs are starting pitching, a left handed bat off the bench, and some insurance at second base. Starting pitching down the stretch last season and into the playoffs was clearly the Dodgers Achilles heal, and the situation only looks worse headed into the 2010 season. Right now I have Elbert and McDonald penciled in, although both are young and inexperienced. I expect Elbert to open the season in the Minors and McDonald to remain in the bullpen but with lack of better options they would be our 4th and 5th starters if the season opened today. I fully expect Elbert to be in the rotation by the end of the season, maybe even as soon as May, but the Dodgers most certainly need insurance behind him.
First off, consider Wolf gone already, he has demanded a ton of interest on the open market already and I expect to see him get somewhere in the neighborhood of 12/Mil a year over 4 years. Although it is bittersweet, I think this is for the best, and the money should be used elsewhere. If you are skeptical of letting our best pitcher walk reference Derek Lowe 2009 Free Agency. Lowe was the Dodgers most consistent pitcher the prior year but he commanded too much money so we let him go and he ended up flopping in Atlanta. To give you an idea Derek Lowe led the entire league in hits allowed last year. You would be surprised what playing in front of the Dodgers defense, as well as in Chavez Ravine can do for pitchers numbers so as good as Wolf was last year I think he will flop with whoever his highest bidder is this off-season.
That being said, I would like to see the Dodgers try and bring back Padilla at maybe 2/yrs 12 Mil. Maybe that is a stretch money wise in this slim market of Starting Pitchers, but anything more than that I think is too much for a guy like Padilla who is surrounded in question marks, despite his strong play at the end of last season. I highly expect the Dodgers to bring in at least one more established starters, if not two, and looking at the Free Agent here are some names I think could be realistic possibilities, and no John lackey is not one of them.
Rich Harden, Joel Pineiro, Carl Pavano, Braden Looper, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchsherer. My favorite of the list is Rich Harden, a guy I believe has some of the nastiest stuff in the league when he is healthy. I have always been a big Harden fan so I am biased to say the least but I think he will come at a bargain, maybe 2 years just under 20 million. A lot of teams will skeptical to sign Harden because of the laundry list of injuries but this helps the Dodgers get a solid starter or a couple years before all of our arbitration eligible players need to be wrapped up long term. The problem with Harden, and most of these guys, is again the injury risk, something that the Dodgers don't have the depth or the money to be able to put up with right now. One of our biggest problems last year was starting pitchers not going deep enough into games, and that is something that Harden won't do, which is why I expect him to end up somewhere like Seattle, and not in the Dodger blue.
Two guys on that list that have proven to be a bit more durable are Joel Pineiro and Braden Looper. Pinerio was a huge surprise starting for the Cards last year and although he had himself a fantastic season I think he pitched a bit over his head and I expect a decline in production from him next year. Although I think the Dodgers will give him a look I think that he might be too pricey, estimated at about 3 years 20 million, just based on last years stats alone. That leaves us with Braden Looper, a guy who has started over 30 games a season the past 3 years since converting from a reliever. Although he won't strike many guys out and his number last year in Milwaukee are ugly, 5.2 ERA, 1.5 Whip, 290 BAA, while only striking out a batter every other inning I think he could bounce back with the Dodgers and be a real bargain. It was only 2 years ago he posted a tidy, 4.16 ERA over 200 innings and if we could bring him in at 1 year 4/mil i think he could be next years Joel Pineiro.
There has also been rumors of a Doc Halladay trade in which we give up Billingsley and more. I am thinking maybe Billingsley and either Loney, Martin, or some combination of prospects maybe Elbert and DeJesus. I think Halladay would be open to pitching for the Dodgers and would wave his no trade clause but I still think this deal is a long shot due to lack of talent in the minor leagues, as well as a tight off-season budget.
Now let's move onto second base. Right now Hudson is as good as gone and DeWitt has the job if the season started to day, however, despite DeWitt's success with the big league club don't be surprised to see the Dodgers find an insurance guy. DeWitt is still young and has shown inconsistency in the minor leagues so it would be smart for the Dodgers to go after someone like Belliard, who they almost certainly will target given that his price-tag should be pretty cheap (1/yr 3 mil). I think a Belliard/DeWitt platoon could be a very likely scenario for the Dodgers at the start of next year with Torre ultimately riding the hot hand after the first month or so. Another guy the Dodgers may consider would be Placido Palanco (est. 2 yrs/13 mil) who has a great glove and always hits for a high average. I still think the Dodgers will stay cheap here though and stick with DeWitt and Belliard.
Lastly, let us take a quick look at our bench. Although I noted left handed bench bat as a hole for the Dodgers I don't think it is a pressing need that needs to be addressed right away. This is a spot that can be filled by a spring training invite, ie. Doug Mientkiewicz last year, a guy I could actually see the Dodgers bringing back. Not only for his bat, but his glove at either corner inflied spot and for his world series experience. Torre likes to carry experience on the bench (last year, Ausmus 40, Loretta 38, Mientkiewicz 35, Castro 37, Thome 39) and I think he will try to do that to the best of his ability this year, although it will be harder with less money to spend. I think Hu will finally stay with the big league club and act as a defensive replacement, Ellis will spell Martin, although not regularly, and I would love to see Loretta back as a right handed bat off the bench (his timely hit off the bench in game 2 of the NLCS is something I will never forget as I was sitting in right field at the time). And of course, barring a trade, Pierre will be our 4th outfielder, someone who Torre will try and get in the lineup as much as possible.
That is all for now, hope everyone had a wonderful thanksgiving and I will keep you updated with notes from around the league as well as Dodger new as soon as I hear it. (check back soon for a Florida Marlins State of the Franchise)
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